With an unexpected announcement, a key primary hopefuls in the Irish election for president has left the contest, reshaping the entire competition.
Fianna Fáil's Jim Gavin stepped down on Sunday night following revelations about an unpaid debt to a past renter, transforming the race into an uncertain head-to-head battle between a moderate right ex-minister and an independent leftwing member of parliament.
The 54-year-old Gavin, a newcomer to politics who was parachuted into the campaign after professional experiences in athletics, flying and armed forces, stepped aside after it emerged he had neglected to refund a rent overpayment of €3,300 when he was a property owner about in the mid-2000s, during a period of financial difficulty.
"I made a mistake that was not in keeping with my character and the standards I set myself. Corrective actions are underway," he stated. "I have also thought long and hard, about the potential impact of the ongoing campaign on the wellbeing of my family and friends.
"After evaluating everything, I've chosen to exit from the campaign for president with right away and return to the arms of my family."
The most dramatic event in a presidential campaign in living memory narrowed the contest to Heather Humphreys, a past government official who is running for the ruling centre-right political party Fine Gael, and another candidate, an outspoken pro-Palestinian voice who is endorsed by a political party and left-leaning minor parties.
The withdrawal also created turmoil for the leader of Fianna Fáil, the party chief, who had staked his authority by nominating an untried candidate over the doubts of party colleagues.
Martin said Gavin did not want to "cause dispute" to the office of president and was right to withdraw. "Gavin recognized that he made an error in relation to an matter that has come up lately."
Although known for competence and success in business and sport – he guided the Dublin football squad to five straight titles – his political bid struggled through gaffes that left him trailing in an opinion poll even prior to the financial revelation.
Fianna Fáil figures who had opposed selecting Gavin said the fiasco was a "serious miscalculation" that would have "repercussions" – a barely concealed caution to Martin.
His name may stay on the voting paper in the vote scheduled for October 24, which will conclude the lengthy term of the current president, but voters now face a two options between a mainstream moderate hopeful and an autonomous progressive. Opinion research conducted ahead of his departure gave 32 percent backing for Connolly and Humphreys nearly a quarter, with 15 percent supporting Gavin.
Under electoral rules, the electorate chooses contenders based on preference. Should no contender surpass half the votes initially, the contender receiving the lowest primary selections is removed and their support is passed to the next preference.
Analysts predicted that should Gavin be removed, a majority of his ballots would shift to the other candidate, and vice versa, increasing the likelihood that a mainstream contender would secure the presidency for the governing partnership.
The role of president is a mostly representative role but incumbents and past holders transformed it into a stage for international matters.
The 68-year-old Connolly, from her home city, would bring a strong leftwing voice to that legacy. Connolly has attacked neoliberal economics and stated the group represents "an integral component" of the Palestinian community. Connolly has alleged the alliance of warmongering and equated Berlin's enhanced defense expenditure to the pre-war era, when Adolf Hitler rearmed the country.
The 62-year-old Humphreys, has encountered examination over her time in office in administrations that managed a housing crisis. As a Protestant from the border county of Monaghan, she has also been criticised over her failure to speak Gaelic but said her faith tradition could help win over loyalists in the North in a combined country.
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